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2010年6月14日 (月)

今朝のNZ中銀総裁スピーチ、原文付き

「今朝のNZ中銀総裁スピーチ、原文付き」

今朝のNZ中銀ボラード総裁のスピーチは以下の通り

*NZドル高は対外不均衡の改善を助けない
*経済成長は高金利を正当化する

*今回の景気回復はバランスが取れている

A balancing act for New Zealand's economic recovery

As New Zealand is now back on a growth track, we could be doing more to reduce economic
imbalances, especially external debt, Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said today.

Dr Bollard told the Wellington Chamber of Commerce that New Zealand has taken action to
address some of its imbalances, but households and banks can do more to reduce risks
inherent in the external imbalance.

Dr Bollard said the state of balance of the New Zealand economy can be viewed through four
different, but inter-related, lenses: funding imbalances for banks, fiscal imbalances of
the government, savings imbalances by households, and external imbalances. 

Resilience of bank funding has been bolstered by a liquidity policy imposed by the Reserve
Bank, and the Government accounts have a credible and improving track.  But households
remain the most obvious source of imbalance, with balance sheets heavily skewed to
housing, high debt ratios, and very low savings.

"We believe New Zealanders have decided they are over-exposed to property assets and to
high debt, and they are prepared to constrain consumption to improve their savings.  The
question is how much rebalancing they contemplate, and for how long."

On the external account, the trade balance has improved with strong export prices and less
demand for imports from consumers, farmers and businesses.  But a large deficit on the
investment income balance is showing no signs of enduring improvement, and the strong New
Zealand dollar has not helped.

"Indeed it will be difficult to improve this metric as it will require us to get our net
external debt position on to a downward trend.  The financing consequences of years of
running external deficits mean that foreigners have more than twice as much invested in
New Zealand as we have invested overseas.

"Our net external liabilities cannot keep increasing with impunity.  Ultimately either the
markets will penalise us by requiring a larger premium for its continued funding, and/or
the sheer size of servicing our obligations will become an intolerable burden to the
country.  But rather than await such painful punishments, we should be looking to improve
the situation.


"Some of this is largely outside our control, like the relative valuations of major
currencies.  But there is a lot that can be and is being done: designing fiscal and tax
policy to reduce vulnerabilities, putting in place cautious bank regulation, and improving
access to a range of investment opportunities.  Ultimately, however, it is up to New
Zealanders to improve the quantity and quality of household savings."

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